Monday, October 3, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
What Next for Gold Mining Stocks? - 8 September 2011
Gold mining stocks have taken a beating...
KNOWN AS The Mercenary Geologist, Michael S. "Mickey" Fulp has more than 30 years' experience searching for economic deposits of base and precious metals, industrial minerals, coal, uranium, oil and gas, and water in the Americas, Europe and Asia.
In this interview with The Gold Report, Mickey Fulp explains why he expects a lot of the patient money sitting on the sidelines to get itchy soon...
The Gold Report: In the midst of a number of record three-digit swings in the Dow of late, the market's just pounded some otherwise healthy precious metals stocks. You pointed out in a July Musing that TSX junior resource valuations were down 20% from their March highs. Is this a good time to take a look at micro caps, Mickey?
Mickey Fulp: I think late summer is always a good time to take a look at our junior resource sector because of disinterest during the doldrums. At some point during the summer, stocks oftentimes drift down to their yearly lows or at least a trough.
If you looked at a chart of the Toronto Venture, you'd probably see summer troughs almost every year. Sometimes they last for a couple of months and at other times as little as a week. This year's summer doldrums, caused by lack of liquidity and lack of buying interest, has been going on for a couple of months now and the Venture Exchange continues to drift lower. The TSX index is down 35% from its highs in early March, right before the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference.
So, yes, I think this is a buying opportunity for some of the fundamentally strong micro caps.
Rapaport TradeWire September 9, 2011
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices.
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices. Market waiting for Hong Kong show amid hopes that Far East demand will improve industry sentiment and stabilize prices. One carat RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI) falls 4% to 103.91 in August. Rough trading weak. ALROSA sales +23% to $3.2B in first eight months of 2011. Harry Winston 2Q group sales +45% to $222M, net profit -23% to $10M. U.S. July polished imports +25% to $2.06B, polished exports +20% to $1.42B. Volatile gold sets new record ($1,922.20/oz).
Rapaport TradeWire September 9, 2011
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices.
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices. Market waiting for Hong Kong show amid hopes that Far East demand will improve industry sentiment and stabilize prices. One carat RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI) falls 4% to 103.91 in August. Rough trading weak. ALROSA sales +23% to $3.2B in first eight months of 2011. Harry Winston 2Q group sales +45% to $222M, net profit -23% to $10M. U.S. July polished imports +25% to $2.06B, polished exports +20% to $1.42B. Volatile gold sets new record ($1,922.20/oz).Market Comments 9/8/2011
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices. Market waiting for Hong Kong show amid hopes that Far East demand will improve industry sentiment and stabilize prices. One carat RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI) falls 4% to 103.91 in August. Rough trading weak. ALROSA sales +23% to $3.2B in first eight months of 2011. Harry Winston 2Q group sales +45% to $222M, net profit -23% to $10M. U.S. July polished imports +25% to $2.06B, polished exports +20% to $1.42B. Volatile gold sets new record ($1,922.20/oz).
Global Markets
United States: Some polished trading is taking place with retail buyers pressing for deeper discounts in the hope that a stronger buyer’s market will develop ahead of the fourth-quarter season. Wholesalers are hoping that the Hong Kong Gem & Jewellery Fair, which starts on September 19, will bring price stability and inject some confidence for the season. There is a shift toward cheaper stones with buyers focused on SI goods. Bridal continues to carry the market with rising interest in branded goods, but at lower price points.
Belgium: Activity is slow in Antwerp, despite being the first full week of trading since the summer break. Polished buyers are prepared to hold back from making large purchases while prices continue to downtrend. Rough inventories remain high but trading in the dealer market is low. Overall, sentiment is restrained as dealers lack the confidence to close deals at while price levels appear uncertain.
Israel: Trading remains slow as local and international buyers are waiting to assess if further rough and polished price reductions are pending. There is some concern that the market slump will extend through the Hong Kong show, which could negatively impact the fourth-quarter season. The Inquiries are being submitted, but it appears that most of the activity is about understanding prices, rather than finding goods. Buying is focused on filling existing orders.
India: Activity in the local polished market has improved slightly after many dealers returned to business following the recent Jain festival of Paryushan. There is good demand for star and 1.00-carat size goods, but buyers and sellers are uncertain about whether to close deals given the significant price variations prevalent in the market. Indian retailers and polished dealers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude to assess near-term price trends. Sentiment in the rough market remains weak as buyers refrain from buying since they expect prices to decline further.
China: Wholesale activity has improved slightly as retailers have begun preparations for the National Day Golden Week celebration on October 1. However, buying remains cautious due to price uncertainties. There is a sense that the upcoming Hong Kong show, which starts on September 19, will provide strong last-minute buying opportunities for the festival and inject some stability in prices.
Hong Kong: Trading remains cautious as buyers are uncertain about price trends in the coming weeks. Many are waiting for the Hong Kong show to assess prices and make larger purchases to fill inventories. Wholesalers are focused on getting ready for the show. Polished diamond demand is stable as jewelry retail sales continue to rise across the region.
Market Comments 9/8/2011
Diamond markets quiet due to price uncertainties with some suppliers offering goods at low prices. Market waiting for Hong Kong show amid hopes that Far East demand will improve industry sentiment and stabilize prices. One carat RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI) falls 4% to 103.91 in August. Rough trading weak. ALROSA sales +23% to $3.2B in first eight months of 2011. Harry Winston 2Q group sales +45% to $222M, net profit -23% to $10M. U.S. July polished imports +25% to $2.06B, polished exports +20% to $1.42B. Volatile gold sets new record ($1,922.20/oz).
Global Markets
United States: Some polished trading is taking place with retail buyers pressing for deeper discounts in the hope that a stronger buyer’s market will develop ahead of the fourth-quarter season. Wholesalers are hoping that the Hong Kong Gem & Jewellery Fair, which starts on September 19, will bring price stability and inject some confidence for the season. There is a shift toward cheaper stones with buyers focused on SI goods. Bridal continues to carry the market with rising interest in branded goods, but at lower price points.
Belgium: Activity is slow in Antwerp, despite being the first full week of trading since the summer break. Polished buyers are prepared to hold back from making large purchases while prices continue to downtrend. Rough inventories remain high but trading in the dealer market is low. Overall, sentiment is restrained as dealers lack the confidence to close deals at while price levels appear uncertain.
Israel: Trading remains slow as local and international buyers are waiting to assess if further rough and polished price reductions are pending. There is some concern that the market slump will extend through the Hong Kong show, which could negatively impact the fourth-quarter season. The Inquiries are being submitted, but it appears that most of the activity is about understanding prices, rather than finding goods. Buying is focused on filling existing orders.
India: Activity in the local polished market has improved slightly after many dealers returned to business following the recent Jain festival of Paryushan. There is good demand for star and 1.00-carat size goods, but buyers and sellers are uncertain about whether to close deals given the significant price variations prevalent in the market. Indian retailers and polished dealers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude to assess near-term price trends. Sentiment in the rough market remains weak as buyers refrain from buying since they expect prices to decline further.
China: Wholesale activity has improved slightly as retailers have begun preparations for the National Day Golden Week celebration on October 1. However, buying remains cautious due to price uncertainties. There is a sense that the upcoming Hong Kong show, which starts on September 19, will provide strong last-minute buying opportunities for the festival and inject some stability in prices.
Hong Kong: Trading remains cautious as buyers are uncertain about price trends in the coming weeks. Many are waiting for the Hong Kong show to assess prices and make larger purchases to fill inventories. Wholesalers are focused on getting ready for the show. Polished diamond demand is stable as jewelry retail sales continue to rise across the region.
Global Markets
United States: Some polished trading is taking place with retail buyers pressing for deeper discounts in the hope that a stronger buyer’s market will develop ahead of the fourth-quarter season. Wholesalers are hoping that the Hong Kong Gem & Jewellery Fair, which starts on September 19, will bring price stability and inject some confidence for the season. There is a shift toward cheaper stones with buyers focused on SI goods. Bridal continues to carry the market with rising interest in branded goods, but at lower price points.
Belgium: Activity is slow in Antwerp, despite being the first full week of trading since the summer break. Polished buyers are prepared to hold back from making large purchases while prices continue to downtrend. Rough inventories remain high but trading in the dealer market is low. Overall, sentiment is restrained as dealers lack the confidence to close deals at while price levels appear uncertain.
Israel: Trading remains slow as local and international buyers are waiting to assess if further rough and polished price reductions are pending. There is some concern that the market slump will extend through the Hong Kong show, which could negatively impact the fourth-quarter season. The Inquiries are being submitted, but it appears that most of the activity is about understanding prices, rather than finding goods. Buying is focused on filling existing orders.
India: Activity in the local polished market has improved slightly after many dealers returned to business following the recent Jain festival of Paryushan. There is good demand for star and 1.00-carat size goods, but buyers and sellers are uncertain about whether to close deals given the significant price variations prevalent in the market. Indian retailers and polished dealers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude to assess near-term price trends. Sentiment in the rough market remains weak as buyers refrain from buying since they expect prices to decline further.
China: Wholesale activity has improved slightly as retailers have begun preparations for the National Day Golden Week celebration on October 1. However, buying remains cautious due to price uncertainties. There is a sense that the upcoming Hong Kong show, which starts on September 19, will provide strong last-minute buying opportunities for the festival and inject some stability in prices.
Hong Kong: Trading remains cautious as buyers are uncertain about price trends in the coming weeks. Many are waiting for the Hong Kong show to assess prices and make larger purchases to fill inventories. Wholesalers are focused on getting ready for the show. Polished diamond demand is stable as jewelry retail sales continue to rise across the region.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
ROUGH DIAMOND PRICE CORRECTION WELCOMED BY SURAT DIAMANTAIRES
Surat’s diamantaires are welcoming a recent correction in the prices of rough diamonds, India’s Business Standardreports.
Rough prices, which have shot up by as much as 60% since the start of the year, have declined by 20-22% in the past few weeks.
Surat Diamond Association President Dinesh Navadia said that with rough prices “under control” and the holidays approaching, “the time had come” for diamantaires to make a profit. “We are hopeful for robust demand during Diwali and Christmas,” Navadia stated.
A major issue with the spiraling cost of rough product seen this year is that polished diamond prices, while increasing, have failed to keep pace, cutting into diamond manufacturers’ profit margins. That trend has been reflected in the recent market correction, Navadia noted, with polished prices down but not to the extent of rough.
According to the Standard, some Surat diamantaires may take advantage of the drop in rough prices to build up their stocks. However, Navadia pointed out, not many diamond traders had the necessary liquidity to finance such a move.
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